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As September begins, the U.S. economy is poised to shift from a high-intensity tightening phase over the past 2.5 years to a new monetary policy direction.  As September begins, the U.S. economy is poised to shift from a high-intensity tightening phase over the past 2.5 years to a new monetary policy direction. Key indicators this month, particularly the August non-farm payroll report, are expected to determine the Federal Reserve's rate cut decisions. Given the gradual easing of the labor market, a 0.25% point 'small cut' by the Fed in September is increasingly likely. 1. September Rate Cut Expectations September marks a pivotal point as the U.S. economy transitions from a stringent tightening policy to a new monetary policy stance. The crucial variables this month include the August non-farm payroll report and other job indicators, which are expected to guide the Federal Reserve's rate cut decisions. With concerns about economic slowdown shifting to expectations of a ...

This has significantly increased market expectations for a potential 'big cut' The recently released minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting show that a majority of Fed members believe a rate cut in September would be appropriate if economic indicators continue to meet expectations. This has significantly increased market expectations for a potential 'big cut'—a 0.50% reduction—in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. On August 21, 2024 (local time), the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its July FOMC meeting. The minutes reveal that a vast majority of Fed members indicated that if economic data continues to align with expectations, it would be appropriate to ease monetary policy at the September meeting. This aligns with market expectations that the Fed might start cutting rates in September. Following the unexpected rise in the U.S. unemployment rate reported in July, Wall Street has increasingly considered a Fed rate cut in Se...